The time has come to throw in my two cents on how the Super Bowl will play out. This game is never easy to pin down because there are so many stats, story lines and opinions floated for two weeks that change your way of thinking.
Initially, I liked Pittsburgh to win but not to cover the spread, which opened with the Steelers as a 6.5-point favorite, then went to 7, where it’s pretty much stayed. After joining the masses and toying with the notion of an outright Arizona victory, I’ve gone back to my original mind-set: Steelers win a close one.
There are a couple of basic reasons:
We’ve heard forever that defense and strong ground games win championships. What better time for that to be proven than in this matchup of the Steelers’ No. 1 defense and its rushing attack that now features a fresh Willie Parker and capable Mewelde Moore (who filled in nicely when Parker was hurt). They’ve got the horses and the mentality to run the ball. Sure, they aren’t the Titans or Panthers or Falcons, but their ground game complements an effective passing game.
There’s another reason I lean to Pittsburgh, and it’s kind of a reverse thought process, I guess. The Steelers are favored by a touchdown, but it feels like they’re the underdogs. I’ve seen a lot of TV analysts pick Arizona straight up (this morning, Steve Young and Keyshawn Johnson). Our own Web site has Arizona with 71 percent of the vote. It’s not as lopsided on ESPN’s site, which has slightly more voters — more than half a million. Still, 53 percent say the Cards win outright. So who gets to play the “disrespect” card? Both can lay claim to it, perhaps negating one of Arizona’s motivations.
I think there’s strong sentiment for Arizona because it has never won the Super Bowl, has a feel-good story in quarterback Kurt Warner and, oh yeah, it can play. I venture to say, hearts more than heads are reflected in these polls. Otherwise, wouldn’t Vegas, which knows a little about these things, move the line toward Arizona? At least some?
A couple other thoughts:
The best playmakers for each team are Arizona wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald and Pittsburgh safety Troy Polamalu. Fitz has been all-world in the postseason (did you know all five of his touchdowns have been in the first half?) But I think Polamalu neutralizes him. In fact, the Steelers No. 1 pass defense allowed only 157 yards a game during the regular season and a passer rating of 63 for opposing quarterbacks, so Fitz might not be the only one who is slowed. Anquan Boldin’s performance on the other side could be a huge factor.
The strength for each team is easy to identify. Arizona’s offense, Pittsburgh’s defense. Let’s call that a wash. Neither side figures to dominate the other. That brings up Pittsburgh’s offense versus Arizona’s defense. I give the edge to the former, mostly because of the Steelers’ balance. Hines Ward is a big part of the equation. Can he approximate the standard he’s created for himself? The Steelers think so. We’ll see. Meanwhile, the shining moment for Arizona’s defense in the playoffs was due as much to the ineptitude of Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme (five interceptions) as anything else.
I see a decent game. Arizona’s offense will have success between the 20s but the confined space close to the end zone will restrict their lone weapon, the pass. I see Pittsburgh’s workmanlike offense having enough success against a defense that ranked 28th in scoring to pull out the win.
Steelers 24, Cardinals 20
